As of 2026-09-25As of 2026-09-25
  • SPXS&P 5007,743.41+0.51%
  • NDXNasdaq Composite27,068.72+0.48%
  • US10Y10Y Treasury5.18%+1.37%
  • US2Y2Y Treasury4.87%+0.41%
  • DXYDollar index119.51+0.14%
  • WTICrude oil96.41−0.58%
  • VIXVolatility14.21−4.44%

Every price is a belief.I read the beliefs.

Based in
New Brunswick, NJ
Studying
Economics, Rutgers
Class of
2029
From
Shenzhen, China

Latest writing · 06

Notes on companies, and on questions without prices.

All writing
Essay

What a model owes the people it predicts

If a system can guess what I will do before I do it, does it owe me a reason? A sample essay on prediction, explanation, and what we are entitled to ask of machines that decide things about us.

  • ai-ethics
  • philosophy
2 min read
COSTResearchConsumer Staples

Costco: the membership fee is the business

Merchandise margin is close to zero by design. The fee is where the profit lives, and the renewal rate is the number that matters. A look at how much of the multiple that one line item supports.

  • retail
  • membership
  • unit-economics
1 min read
JPMResearchFinancials

JPMorgan: what scale buys you in banking

A fortress balance sheet is a slogan until you look at the technology budget. I try to separate the cyclical earnings from the structural ones and ask what a normal return on tangible equity looks like.

  • banks
  • capital-allocation
  • rates
1 min read
ASMLResearchTechnology

ASML: a monopoly with a backlog

The only supplier of EUV lithography is priced like one. The interesting question is how export controls and customer capex cycles interact with a multi-year order book.

  • semiconductors
  • capital-equipment
  • moat
1 min read
Fig. 01NVDA vs. SPX, rebased to 100NVDA · vs. SPX · 2024-01-02 – 2026-09-24
  1. 110-for-1 splitRetail flow picks up
  2. 2DeepSeek shockSingle-day drawdown
  3. 3Thesis publishedThis note
NVDA vs. SPX, rebased to 100 at 2024-01-02. Sources: placeholder (synthetic series, not real prices); FRED (SP500).

About

From Shenzhen to New Jersey

Born in Shenzhen in 2006, sent to boarding school in New Hampshire at fifteen, now studying economics at Rutgers with an eye on investment banking. The longer version is on the About page.

More about me
  1. 2006Born in ShenzhenShenzhen, China
  2. 2021Tilton SchoolTilton, NH
  3. 2022Trinity-Pawling SchoolPawling, NY
  4. 2025Rutgers UniversityNew Brunswick, NJ
  5. 2026This siteNew Brunswick, NJ

Right now

Updated 2026-09-25
Reading
Strait Is the GateAndré Gide
Doing
Ethics of AI and Other Technology
What I am up to

Resume

Resume

Education, experience, and the numbers behind them, on one page. Full résumé available on request.

Get in touch

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